新安江模型状态变量初值对计算结果影响分析

Analysis of the initial value of state variables of Xin'anjiang Model on the calculation results

指出了对计算结果有影响的新安江模型的状态变量初值,分别是张力水蓄量W0,包括上层蓄量WU0、下层蓄量WL0、深层蓄量WD0;壤中流QI0、地下径流QG0。以布吉河流域草铺站洪水为例,在其他初值不变时,分别对WU0、WL0、WD0、QI0、QG0取值进行计算,结果表明:WU0、WL0、WD0、QI0、QG0均非常敏感,对计算结果影响显著。WU0、WL0、WD0影响洪峰和洪量,影响大小与其变化范围相关,变化范围越大,影响越大。而QI0、QG0则对计算结果有着系统性的同向影响,即随着QI0、QG0的增大或减小,计算结果呈现系统性的增大或减小。

This paper points out that the initial state variables of Xin'anjiang Model,which have influence on the calculation results,include initial soil water content W0,initial inter flow QI0 and initial underground flow QG0,where W0 consists of upper water content WU0,lower water content WL0 and deep water content WD0.Taking the flood of Caopu station in Buji River Basin as an example,the values of WU0、WL0、WD0、QI0 and QG0 are set respectively for flood simulating.The results show that WU0、WL0、WD0、QI0 and QG0 are very sensitive and have significant influence on the simulating results.The influence of WU0、WL0、WD0 on flood peak and flood volume is significant,and the degree depends on the change scope of WU0、WL0、WD0.The larger scope of the change the greater the influence.However,QI0 and QG0 have a systematic and co-directional influence on the calcula tion results,that is,with the increase or decrease of QI0 and QG0,the calculation results show a systematic in crease or decrease.