全球金融2019年态势复盘与2020年走势预测

Global Financial Situation Resumes in 2019 and Trend Forecast in 2020

作为对冲经济下滑的宏观政策工具选项,过去一年美联储三度降息,全球30多个国家相继跟进,并且美联储与欧洲央行重新“扩表”,货币政策再次进入宽松轨道;与此同时,扩大国债发行规模、提高赤字率以及减税等扩张性财政政策走向前台;得益于宽松货币政策的支撑,全球股市与债券集体进入牛市,石油、黄金等大宗商品也有精彩表现,并且随着全球主要国家央行推低货币利率,债券市场出现了大面积负利率的全新景观,美国国债市场甚至出现利率倒挂现象;另外,作为金融市场一个新物种,基于区块链的数字货币在全球范围内得到大尺度推进,法定数字货币的面世指日可待;不过,由于国际贸易摩擦频繁不断,地缘冲突经常作祟,导致国际资本并购出现了明显滑坡。对于2020年国际金融的走势判断,总体结论是多空力量激励博弈并维持微弱平衡,市场会出现一个较为平和的发展格局。

As a macro policy tool option to hedge the economic downturn,the US Federal Reserve has cut interest rates three times in the past year,followed by more than 30 countries around the world,and the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have re-expanded,and monetary policy has once again entered a loose track;At the same time,expansionary fiscal policies such as expanding the scale of national debt issuance,increasing the deficit rate,and tax reductions are coming to the fore.Thanks to the support of loose monetary policies,global stock markets and bonds have collectively entered a bull market,and commodities such as oil and gold have also performed well.As the central banks of major countries in the world push down currency rates,the bond market has seen a new landscape of large areas of negative interest rates,and the U.S.government bond market has even seen interest rate inversions.In addition,as a new species in the financial market,blockchain-based digital currencies are used globally.Advancing on a large scale,the advent of legal digital currencies is just around the corner;however,due to frequent and constant international trade frictions and frequent geopolitical conflicts,international capital mergers and acquisitions have experienced a significant decline.Judging by the trend of international finance in 2020,the overall conclusion is that the long and short forces stimulate the game and maintain a weak balance,and a more peaceful development pattern will emerge in the market.