学术论文引用预测研究进展

Research on Academic Paper Citation Prediction

[目的/意义]对学术论文引用预测影响因素和预测方法进行梳理,分析现存问题并提出发展方向。[方法/过程]采用文献调研法,综述国内外研究进展,总结预测影响因素和预测方法的相关内容和特点。[结果/结论]现有影响因素指标繁多,无统一标准;预测方法理论基础薄弱;引文预测动态性研究不足;预测模型通用性受限。未来应加强引文预测的理论研究、加强传统文献计量和替代计量的结合、加强自然语言处理的深度应用、建立统一的基线标准、构建更加精准的预测模型。

[Purpose/significance]This paper summarizes the influencing factors and prediction methods of academic paper citation,analyzes the existing problems and proposes the future development directions.[Method/process]This paper used the literature research method to review the research progress of academic papers at home and abroad,and summarized the relevant content and characteristics of influencing factors and prediction methods.[Result/conclusion]There are many indicators of influencing factors,but there is no unified selection criteria.The theoretical basis of prediction methods is weak.The research on dynamics of citation prediction is insufficient.The generality of prediction models is limited.In the future,we should strengthen the theoretical research of citation prediction methods,the combination of traditional bibliometrics and alternative metrics,the deep application of natural language processing,and establish a unified baseline standard,a more accurate prediction model.