退休政策对中国居民消费及主观福利的影响

The Impact of Retirement Policy on Chinese Residents’Consumption and Subjective Wellbeing

伴随着老龄化日趋严峻,退休消费问题与中国经济结构转型发展、居民福利水平及退休政策密切相关,中老年人消费结构的转变将对中国经济发展产生深远的影响。基于20112015年中国健康与养老追踪调查三期数据和中国退休制度规定,运用断点回归方法分析了退休对中国居民消费及主观福利的影响。结果显示,退休使得非耐用品消费支出显著降低约31.6%,其中与工作相关的支出显著降低约56.2%,在家食物支出减少约49.8%,但闲暇娱乐支出和医疗消费有所增加,其他非耐用品支出减少并不显著。退休冲击使男性户主生活满意度为不满意的比例显著增加22.4个百分点,退休对其主观福利产生负向影响。建议根据老年人消费结构特征,提供适合其消费的产品和服务,并制定符合老年人需求的消费刺激政策,改善老年人消费福利和主观福利水平。

The trend of aging is becoming serious,which has greatly increased the number of retirees.The issue of retirement consumption is closely related to the transformation of China’s economic structure,the welfare level of residents and the retirement policy.The big consumption structure of the elderly will have a long-term impact on the development of China’s economy.Using the 20112015 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study panel data,this paper exploits the retirement policy and utilizes the regression discontinuity design(RDD)to investigate the effect of the retirement on consumption and subjective welfare of the residents in China.The results show that retirement has led to a significant reduction of non-durable expenditures by 31.6%,where work-related expenditures have decreased significantly by 56.2%,and household food expenditures have decreased by 49.8%,but leisure entertainment expenditures and health care consumption have increased.The study shows that such fall can be accounted for by drops in goods that are work-related expenses,food expenses or leisure substitutes.However,retirement has no significant impact on the remaining non-durable expenditures.The retirement shock has significantly increased the probability of dissatisfaction by 22.4 percentage points,so retirement has a negative impact on subjective well-being.The government should formulate consumption stimulus policies that meet the needs of the elderly,and improve the consumption welfare and subjective welfare level of the elderly.