基于DEA-Malmquist模型的农产品TFP时空变化分析——以安徽省重要农产品生产保护区为例

The Temporal and Spatial Variation of Total Factor Productivity of Agricultural Products Based on DEA-Malmquist Model:Taking Production Protected Areas of Important Agricultural Products in Anhui Province's as an Example

农产品生产效率不高是我国现阶段农产品生产供需不平衡现象的重要原因。“重要农产品生产保护区”的建设为提高重要农产品生产效率提供了契机。基于安徽省2013—2017年的16个地级市面板数据,采用DEA—Malmquist模型对安徽省大豆、棉花、油菜籽三大重要农产品生产保护区的全要素生产率、技术变动、技术效率变动进行时空变化分析。结果发现:从空间分布比较TFP均值,大豆生产区>棉花生产区>油菜籽生产区;从时序看,大豆技术效率变动呈“凹谷状”,技术变动呈“凸峰状”;棉花技术效率变动呈“V型”,技术变动正相反呈“倒V型”;油菜籽技术效率呈“倒三角”型,技术变动则“高开低走”。从要素看,技术更新慢、规模不经济。因此,提出推进农产品生产经营模式改革、推动农产品生产技术创新、加力政府宏观调控对策。

Low production efficiency of agricultural products is an important reason for the imbalance between supply and demand of agricultural products in China.The construction of"production protected areas of important agricultural products"provides an opportunity for improving the production efficiency of important agricultural products.Based on the panel data of 16 prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province from 2013 to 2017,this paper uses DEA-Malmquist model to analyze the changes of total factor productivity,technical change and technical efficiency in the three production protected areas of important agricultural products of soybean,cotton and rapeseed.The results show that measured by the mean value of TFP from the spatial distribution,soybean production area is greater than cotton production area,and cotton production area is greater than rapeseed production area.From the time sequence,the change of soybean technical efficiency is"concave valley",and the technical change is"convex peak".The change of cotton technical efficiency is v-shaped,while the technical change is inversely v-shaped.The change of rapeseed technical efficiency of shows an inverted triangle,while the technical change shows high-grade and low-speed development.From the perspective of factors,the technology updates slowly,and the scale is not economical.Therefore,it puts forward the countermeasures of promoting the reform of agricultural production and management mode,promoting the innovation of agricultural production technology and strengthening the macro-control of the government.