基于跨断层形变资料的地震预测效能回溯性分析——以鲜水河断裂带为例

Retrospective Analysis of Seismic Prediction Efficiency Based on Cross-fault Deformation Data:Taking Xianshuihe Fault Zone as an Example

对1990年1月1日至2018年9月30日鲜水河断裂带的跨断层观测资料进行处理,结合该时段内的历史震例( M≥6.0) ,根据水平形变速率合成结果追溯了几次震例的特征,同时利用R值评分标准采用速率差分方法对统计检验和模拟检验结果进行回溯性分析,并对水平形变单测项按12个月窗长进行预测效能分析. 结果表明:由于鲜水河断裂带的震例和测项较多,并积累有丰富的跨断层资料,所以从目前已有的震例分析来看,从水平速率合成结果可以看出在多次地震前都会出现显著的速率增强或者速率减弱变化特征. 通过开展预测效能回溯性分析进行震例总结所提取的预测指标对地震发生的时间具有一定的预测意义.

Firstly,we processed the cross-fault observation data of the Xianshuihe Fault Zone from Jan.1,1990 to Sep.,30,2018.Secondly,according to the horizontal deformation rate synthesis,we identified the features of the M≥6.0 historical earthquakes in this period.Meanwhile,we analyzed retrospectively the results of statistical test and simulation test by using the R-value scoring standard and the rate difference method.Finally,we analyzed the prediction efficiency of the horizontal deformation according to window length of 12 months.As the results show,due to the great number of the earthquake cases and measurement items in Xianshuihe Fault Zone,a great abundance of cross-fault data have been accumulated.From the horizontal rate synthesis analyzing results of existing earthquake cases,we could find that there will appear significant rate enhancement or rate weakening changes before many earthquakes.The prediction indexes extracted from the summary of earthquake cases based on the retrospective analysis of the prediction efficiency have certain significance in predicting the time of earthquake occurrence.