基于时间序列预测模型的鱼类栖息地变化研究

由于全球变暖,海洋温度逐年上升,这种环境变化将影响海洋生物栖息地的选择。对于苏格兰而言,鲱鱼和鲭鱼的栖息地将发生变化,这将对当地渔业产生巨大影响。在本论文中,首先,我们使用资源密度重心法确定鱼群的起始位置。这是当时鱼类学校最适合生存的地方。接下来,我们将苏格兰周围的海域分为13个区域。然后,在建立时间序列预测模型和过去50年每个海域温度数据的基础上,计算了未来50年中每5年13个海域的海洋温度,找到最适合鱼的生长温度。最后,确定了适合鲱鱼和鲭鱼生存的主要分布位置。

due to global warming,ocean temperatures are increasing year by year,and this environmental change will affect the choice of Marine habitats.For Scotland,the habitat of herring and mackerel will change,which will have a huge impact on local fisheries.In this paper,firstly,we use the method of resource density center of gravity to determine the starting position of fish.This was the best place for fish schools.Next,we divide the sea around Scotland into 13 zones.Then,based on the time series prediction model and the temperature data of each sea area in the past 50 years,the ocean temperature of 13 sea areas every 5 years in the next 50 years is calculated to find the most suitable growth temperature for fish.Finally,the main distribution sites for herring and mackerel were identified.