中国省际碳排放强度的空间效应及其传导机制研究

Spatial effects and transmission mechanism of inter-provincial carbon emission intensity in China

供给侧改革和高质量发展的适时提出为中国低碳经济发展提供了新思路,调整以往过多的行政配置资源带来的要素扭曲,研究同一个国家不同省份之间资源要素协同问题的方法可以为提出有效的节能减排政策提供科学依据与决策参考。基于此,对我国碳排放强度空间面板数据进行测算,提出探索性时空数据分析框架,运用GeoDa软件刻画我国省际碳排放强度时空关联及其局部空间差异的波动性,将STIRPAT模型和EKC模型相结合检验我国碳排放强度影响因素的空间溢出特性,揭示我国碳排放强度时空演进的一般规律。研究结果表明:我国碳排放强度的局部空间自相关呈现集聚与分异并存的时空分布特征,碳排放强度水平相近的省区均呈现出先减弱后增强的空间集聚现象,我国省际碳排放强度存在俱乐部收敛的演进特征。我国省际碳排放强度存在空间溢出性特征,我国碳排放强度空间集聚、分异与跃迁的形成与演变是各地区资源禀赋以及经济发展水平等多种资源要素协同作用的结果。进一步提出分区域、有重点的区域协同减排措施,提升区域碳排放协同治理的效率。

The timely proposal of supply-side reform and high-quality development provides new ideas for China s low-carbon economic development.Adjusting the distortion of factors caused by excessive administrative allocation of resources in the past and studying the methods of resource element coordination between different provinces in the same country can provide scientific basis and decision-making reference for putting forward effective energy conservation and emission reduction policies.Based on this,this study calculated the spatial panel data of China s carbon emission intensity,proposed an exploratory spatial-temporal data analysis framework,and used the GeoDa software to describe the spatial-temporal correlation of China s inter-provincial carbon emission intensity and the volatility of its local spatial differences.The STIRPAT model and EKC model were combined to test the spatial spillover characteristics of the factors affecting China s carbon emission intensity,revealing the general law of temporal and spatial evolution of carbon emission intensity in China.The results show that the local spatial autocorrelation of China s carbon emission intensity displayed the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of both concentration and differentiation,and the provinces with similar carbon emission intensity showed the spatial agglomeration phenomenon of weakening first and strengthening next,and the evolution characteristics of club convergence existed in China s provincial carbon emission intensity.There were spatial spillover characteristics in China s inter-provincial carbon emission intensity.The formation and evolution of spatial agglomeration,differentiation and transition of China's carbon emission intensity were the result of the synergy of various resource factors such as the resource endowment and economic development level of each region.Furthermore,this paper proposes regional and key regional coordinated emission reduction measures to improve the efficiency of coordinated governance in regional carbon emission.