可持续能源转型:模型构建与分析

Modelling sustainable energy transitions

为研究可持续能源系统转型路径,以转型理论为概念框架,从宏观、中观和微观多层次对能源系统进行分析,建立了基于代理的系统动力学转型模型。模型选取当前能源消费结构中占较大比重的煤炭、石油、天然气、风能、水电、光伏和核能作为复杂代理,选取消费者作为简单代理,根据中国能源数据对其进行参数化,并模拟运行了能源系统从2016—2050年间各种类型能源消费比重变动的情形。研究结果显示:①外部景观信号的输入对于能源系统的可持续转型有着至关重要的作用。随着景观信号的输入,各类能源的相对比重发生复杂的相互作用,景观信号持续时间越长、强度越大,向可持续能源系统转型的速度越快、规模越大。②到2050年,可持续能源将占一次能源消费比重的60%左右,实现能源系统的可持续转型,其中,水电将在能源系统的可持续化转型中发挥重要的作用。③2030年以前,石油和天然气将是能源系统中煤炭消费比重下降的主要替代品,因为它们的应用技术已经发展成熟,而且它们更适应当前的基础设施,从短期来看相比可持续能源石油和天然气更有优势,在这种情形下,仍然需要继续支持可持续能源的发展,否则能源系统的可持续转型将不会发生。该研究主要探索通过当前能源系统的景观压力强度以及转型的进度,来量化未来需要输入的景观压力强度;通过模拟转型发生的具体情景,对转型的进展进行更清楚的界定,借此来评估二氧化碳的排放路径;模拟模型也可以评估各类能源在不同时间点上的各种可能性,以及探索各类可持续能源的发展潜力。

This paper builds a sustainable energy transition model based on multi-level perspective and agent theory.This paper selects coal,oil,natural gas,wind energy,hydropower,photovoltaic and nuclear energy,which constitute a large proportion of current energy consumption structure,as complex agents,and selects consumers as simple agents.This paper parameterizes these agents based on China’s energy data and simulates the situation of proportion changes of various types of energy consumption during 2016-2050.The results show that the input of external landscape signals plays an important role in sustainable transformation of energy system.With the input of landscape signal,the longer period of landscape signal and the greater intensity,the faster and the larger transition to sustainable energy system will happen.By 2050,sustainable energy will account for about 60%of primary energy consumption,and then the succeeded sustainable transformation of energy systems will realize;hydropower will play an important role for the sustainable transformation of energy systems.Before 2030,oil and natural gas will be main substitutes to the decline in the proportion of coal consumption,because their mature application technologies are more adaptable to current infrastructures.In the short term,they have an advantage over sustainable energy and under such circumstances,it is still necessary to continue to support the development of sustainable energy,otherwise the sustainable transformation of energy system will not occur.The main contributions of this study include:First,it provides a new research direction,namely,quantifying the landscape stress intensity needed to be input in the future through the current landscape stress intensity of energy system and the progress of transformation.Second,by simulating the specific scenarios of transformation,it defines the progress of transformation more clearly,so as to evaluate carbon dioxide.Third,the model can also evaluate possibilities of various energy sources at different time points,and explore the development potential of various sustainable energy sources.