水环境承载力约束下区域城镇化发展合理速度分析

Analysis of reasonable speed of regional urbanization development under the constraint of water environmental carrying capacity

城镇化发展在促进区域社会经济快速发展的同时也导致水环境问题日益严峻。基于区域水环境承载力探讨了城镇化发展合理速度的计量方法:①构建城镇化进程中水环境承载力评价系统,分析城镇化子系统及水环境承载力子系统的基本要素,建立评价指标体系;基于评价指标,利用向量模法测算水环境承载力综合评价值。②构建水环境承载力约束下的区域城镇化发展合理速度分析模型。③根据不同城镇化发展速度、政府不同管制力度设置9种组合情境,在对相关评价指标进行预测的基础上,分别测算不同情境下的水环境承载力综合评价值;通过“阈值”门槛筛选出合理情境,确定区域城镇化发展速度的合理范围。以经济实力强、城镇化水平高、水环境压力大、制度相对健全的江苏省作为研究区域进行实证分析,测算了2006—2017年江苏省水环境承载力综合评价值,以及2030年9种组合情境下的江苏省水环境承载力综合评价值。获得如下研究结论:①2006—2017年间江苏省水环境承载力虽呈现一定的波动,但2013年以后随着政府管制力度的加强,总体上呈现良好的上升态势,但水环境承载力下滑的压力已开始显现。②2030年9种组合情境中,只有“中/强”“低/强”“低/保持”满足水环境承载力阈值标准。结果表明:到2030年,政府对水环境管制力度“强”的情形下,江苏省城镇化发展可以维持1.0%~1.2%的年增长率;政府对水环境管制力度“保持”的情形下,江苏省城镇化发展只能维持1.0%的年增长率,并据此提出了政策建议。

While promoting the rapid development of regional social economy,urbanization development has also caused increasingly serious water environmental problems.This paper discussed the measurement methods of reasonable speed of urbanization development based on regional water environmental carrying capacity(WECC):①Establish the evaluation system of WECC in the process of urbanization by analyzing the basic elements of urbanization subsystem and WECC subsystem to construct evaluation index system.Calculate the comprehensive evaluation value of WECC by vector norm method based on the evaluation index.②Construct analysis model of reasonable speed of regional urbanization development under the constraint of WECC.③Calculate the comprehensive evaluation values of WECC under 9 scenarios under different urbanization development speed and different government control on the basis of forecasting the relative evaluation indexes.Determine the reasonable range of regional urbanization development speed by screening out rational scenarios through the threshold value.Jiangsu Province was taken as the research area for empirical analysis with strong economic strength,high level of urbanization,great pressure on water environment and relatively sound system.The comprehensive evaluation values of WECC from 2016 to 2017 and in 2030 under 9 scenarios of Jiangsu Province were calculated.The research conclusions were as follows:①The WECC of Jiangsu Province showed some fluctuations during 2006-2017.With the strengthened government regulation after 2013,the overall trend have turned to be better,but the pressure of decline of WECC begun to appear.②Only‘medium/strong’,‘low/strong’,and‘low/maintain’scenarios meet the WECC threshold standards in 2030.It shows that by 2030,Jiangsu’s urbanization development can maintain an annual growth rate of 1.0%~1.2%under the‘strong’government control of water environment;when the government‘maintains’the control of water environment,the annual growth rate of Jiangsu’s urbanization development can only be 1.0%.Based on this,some suggestions are put forward.