辽宁省一次大气重度污染过程预报准确性分析

Forecast Accuracy Analysis of One Heavy Atmospheric Pollution Process of Liaoning Province

2019年春季辽宁省出现了一次长时间、大范围的空气质量重度污染过程,为进一步了解此次环境空气重度污染过程的预报情况,对CMAQ模型、REG模型和人工订正法在此次污染过程中的污染等级和AQI范围的预报准确率进行了分析。结果表明:人工订正法未来24 h跨级预报准确率最高,72 h最低;AQI范围预报中,人工订正法在未来24和72 h均值预报中准确率均为最高,48 h预报REG模型准确率最高,CMAQ模型均为最低;各预报方法在污染过程前期、后期的预报准确率均高于污染过程中期。

In the spring of 2019,a long-term and large-scale heavy air pollution appeared in Liaoning Province.In order to clarify the forecast results of this heavy atmospheric pollution process,this paper used the CMAQ model,the REG model and the manual correction method to analyze the forecast accuracy of the pollution level and the AQI range.The result showed that for the future 24 h cross-level forecast,the accuracy of the manual correction method was the highest,while its accuracy was the lowest for the future 72 h forecast.For the AQI range,the accuracy of the manual correction method was the highest for both the future 24 h and 72 h forecast.For the 48 h forecast,the accuracy of the REG model was the highest.The accuracy of the CMAQ model was the lowest at the different forecast conditions.For all the forecast methods,the forecast accuracy in the early and late stages of the pollution process was higher than the results in the middle stage of the process.