山西省中医类医院卫生资源需求预测

Forecast of Health Resource Demand of TCM Hospitals in Shanxi Province

目的:对山西省中医类医院卫生资源需求进行预测分析,为相关部门合理配置卫生资源提供参考依据。方法:运用灰色系统GM(1,1)及残差修正GM(1,1)模型对山西省中医类医院卫生资源需求进行预测。结果:从2008-2022年卫生资源数的预测值看,山西省中医类医院卫生资源数总体呈缓慢上升趋势,2022年床位数、卫生机构数、卫生技术人员数、执业(助理)中医师数、中药师(士)数将分别达到26275张、272个、23078人、426人、1084人,年平均增长率分别为5.83%、0.94%、4.98%、4.41%、5.17%。与2008-2017年年均增长率相比,床位数年均增长率有所下降,执业(助理)中医师数年均增长率快速上升。结论:政府应加强医疗卫生体系建设,适当控制床位数,注重中医药人才结构调整,完善高素质中医药人才培养机制。

Objective:To forecast and analyze the demand of health resources in Shanxi TCM hospitals,and to provide reference for rational allocation of health resources by relevant departments.Methods:The grey system GM(1,1)and residual correction GM(1,1)model were used to forecast the demand for health resources in Shanxi TCM hospitals.Results:From the predicted value of health resources in 2008-2022,the total number of health resources in traditional Chinese medicine hospitals in Shanxi province increased slowly.By 2022,the number of beds,health institutions,health professionals,practicing(assistant)TCM practitioners and TCM practitioners would reach 26275,272,23078,426 and 1084 respectively,the average annual growth rates were 5.83%,0.94%,4.98%,4.41%and 5.17%,respectively.Compared with the average annual growth rate in 2008-2017,the average annual growth rate of beds had decreased,and the average annual growth rate of practicing(assistant)TCM doctors had risen rapidly.Conclusion:The government should strengthen the construction of the medical and health system,control the number of beds properly,pay attention to the structural adjustment of Chinese medicine talents,relax the access to Chinese medicine services,and improve the training mechanism of high-quality Chinese medicine talents.