多因素耦合作用下地下厂房施工进度风险分析及其应用

Risk Analysis of Construction Progress of Underground Powerhouse under Multi-factor Coupling and Its Application

为深入分析地下厂房施工进度风险因素之间的耦合作用及耦合效应,采用WBS-RBS法识别了影响施工进度的人、物、环境、管理4类风险因素,基于系统动力学方法揭示了同质单因素和异质双-多因素耦合关系,在此基础上建立了同质单因素耦合度模型和异质双-多因素N-K模型,运用蒙特卡罗法模拟了各风险因素对进度影响的概率分布,分析耦合强度。工程实例应用表明,各类风险子系统中存在较大的同质单因素耦合风险,应加强针对性预防和控制;异质双-多因素耦合中,有管理因素参与耦合的风险较大,实际施工中应尽可能减少多因素参与耦合。

In order to analyze the coupling effect between the risk factors of construction progress of underground powerhouse,four kinds of risk factors of human,things,environment and management that affect the construction progress were identified by using WBS-RBS method.Based on the system dynamics method,the coupling relationship between homogeneous single factors and heterogeneous double and multi-factor was revealed.The homogeneous single-factor coupling degree model and the heterogeneous double and multi-factor N-K model were established.Monte Carlo method was applied to simulate the probability distribution of risk factors impact on the schedule,and its coupling strength was analyzed.The application of engineering examples shows that there are larger homogeneous single-factor coupling risks in various risk subsystems,and effective measures should be taken to prevent and control these risks.In the heterogeneous double and multi-factor coupling,there is a great risk of management factors participating in the coupling,and in actual construction,the coupling of multiple factors should be reduced as far as possible.