基于改进欧氏距离协调发展度评估模型的电网投资决策方法

Power Grid Investment Decision-making Method Based on Improved Euclidean Distance Coordination Development Evaluation Model

电力体制改革新背景下电网投资与经济、电量的协调发展作为电网投资决策的约束条件得到进一步加强。基于广义协调性建立了一套电网投资与经济、电量协调性表征指标,综合考虑电网公司、政府监管部门和电网投资、经济电量各子系统,引入模糊隶属度改进传统的欧氏距离协调发展度模型的理想值取定。并以某省2016~2018年指标进行验证,通过经典判别分析比较与传统方法评估的准确性。结果表明,改进的欧氏距离协调发展度评估模型准确率更高,能较好地应用于电改形势下电网投资、经济和电量的协调发展评估。

Under the new background of power system reform,the coordinated development of grid investment and economy and electricity has been further strengthened as a system constraint for grid investment decision-making.Based on the generalized coordination,a set of grid investment and economic and electricity coordination indicators were established.With comprehensive consideration of power grid companies,government regulatory departments,power grid investment,economy and power subsystems,the fuzzy membership degree was introduced to improve the ideal value of the traditional Euclidean distance coordination development model.It was verified by 2016-2018 indicators of a certain province.The accuracy of the traditional method was compared with classical discriminant analysis.The results show that the improved Euclidean distance coordination development evaluation model is higher accurate and can be applied to the coordinated development evaluation of grid investment,economy and electricity in the electric power reform situation.