电力突发事件综合风险定量分析技术研究

Research on Quantitative Analysis Technology of Comprehensive Risk of Power Emergency

电力突发事件风险分析对电力安全运行至关重要。为进一步降低电力突发事件对电网正常运行带来的影响,本文根据近年来电力行业发生的大量突发事件相关数据,提取典型电力突发事件类型及关键要素,运用风险定量分析法,建立多要素电力典型突发事件综合风险计算模型。结果表明:该方法不仅得到了电力行业多种典型突发事件的综合风险量化分值,而且可以最终以图表的形式直观地反应出多种典型突发事件对电力安全运行的影响程度,为预防电力突发事件以及提升电力应急处置能力提供了一种新途径。

The risk analysis of electric power emergences is very important to the safety operation of the power systems. In order to further reduce the impact of the power emergences,according to abundant data of power emergences in recent years,in this paper,a comprehensive risk calculation model is established by analyzing some typical types of power emergencies and key elements,and using quantitative risk analysis method. The research shows that the model not only can obtain different values of comprehensive risk of various typical emergencies in power industry,but also can intuitively reflect the influence degree of many typical emergencies on power safety operation,providing a new way to prevent power emergencies and improve the ability of emergency response.