瘟疫防控过程分析

Analysis for the Process of Preventing and Controlling Plague

瘟疫的大规模爆发,其规模变化遵从正态分布,相应的时间变化也遵从正态分布,两个正态分布函数之间存在着特征值可以变换的关系.据此,本文运用有关实验室和有关经验数据,构造了一个瘟疫对应时程函数.从这个函数出发,估计了瘟疫的发展中关键时间点,并以这些点划分出来的发展阶段,根据有关的科学研究结果,对不同阶段的防控重点作了阐述.分析结果可以作为实际工作的参考.

The size of large-scale outburst of plague is changed by a normal distribution function.Accordingly,the timeprocedure of its change is by a normal distribution function,too.And that the characteristic values of the two functions exist relationship between them that the characteristic values of the normal distribution function of the size of large-scale outburst of pestilence can convert those of its time-procedure function.From this,we obtained a time-procedure function for the the process of preventing and controlling pestilence.Then using the data from laboratory and practical works,we estimate the characteristic values of the time-procedure,that structured the time-procedure function.Basing on this function,we estimate the time points corresponding to the key changes in scale of pestilence.Those values of time points estimated can be referred to obtain the key stages in the size of large-scale outburst of pestilence.