人口迁入与新增确诊数的趋势关系及因果量化分析

The Quantitative Analysis of Causality between Population Migration and the Number of Newly Confirmed Cases

目前,很多地区新冠肺炎疫情已得到缓解,复工、复产已被多地政府部门提上日程.2月10日前后,全国各地返城复工人数增多,2月14日开始,广东、河南等地新增病例数出现了明显反弹,人口跨地区迁徙使疫情防控更加困难.目前全国返工、返校需求还远未得到满足,需要通过数据分析,对"返城复工"的风险进行评估.通过观察数据可以发现人口迁徙与新增确诊病例数有很强的正相关性,因此由"格兰杰因果检验"确定了人口迁徙与新增确诊病例数有显著的因果关系.

At present,the epidemic situation of COVID-19 has been alleviated in many areas,so the resumption of work and production have been put on the agenda by many local governments.Around February 10 th,the number of workers back to work across the country increased greatly.And since February 14 th,the number of newly confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Guangdong,Henan and other provinces has rebounded significantly.The migration of population across regions has made it more difficult to prevent and control the epidemic.Currently,the needs for people back to work and school across the country are far from being met,and data analysis can be used to evaluate the risk of"return to the city and back to work".It can be found that there was a strong positive correlation between population migration and the number of newly confirmed cases of COVID-19 from existing data,and the result of"Granger Causality Test"confirmed that there was a significant causal relationship between them.