俄罗斯世界杯比赛表现指标对胜负影响的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Impact of Performance Indicators on Winning and Losing in the Matches of FIFA World Cup Russia

探索不同赛制下比赛表现指标对比赛结果产生的影响,选取2018年俄罗斯世界杯59场、118组技战术表现和跑动表现指标作为自变量,比赛胜、负作为因变量。运用K型聚类分析,对比分均衡比赛进行界定。根据比赛控球率的不同对比赛表现指标进行标准化处理。运用数据级数推断法界定各自个变量增加2个标准差对比赛获胜概率带来的变化。研究结果:1)在所有比赛中,9项技战术表现指标(射门次数、射正次数、射正率、定位球射门次数、突破进入罚球区次数、控球率、传球成功率、解围成功次数和防守反击次数)和3项跑动表现指标(本方控球时跑动距离、进攻三区跑动距离和对方罚球区跑动距离)使比赛获胜概率显著提升。对方控球时跑动距离则使获胜概率显著下降;2)在比分均衡比赛中,5项技战术表现指标(射门率、定位球射门次数、控球率、传球成功率和解围成功次数)和3项跑动表现指标(本方控球时跑动距离、进攻三区跑动距离和对方罚球区跑动距离)使比赛获胜概率显著提升。而向前传球次数、低强度跑距离、中强度跑距离、对方控球时跑动距离4项比赛表现指标则使获胜概率显著下降。研究表明,FIFA世界杯获胜球队在立足于防守的基础上,以防守反击和定位球作为主要进攻和得分手段,表现出与联赛球队不同的比赛策略。因此,各级球队在备战时应根据赛制和对手实力情况作出针对性的战术部署。

Explore the impact of performance indicators on results in different competitions systems,the paper selected indicators related to 118 groups of technical-tactical and running performance of 59 games in FIFA World Cup Russia 2018 as independent variables,and the game outcome(win and lose)as dependent variable.The K-means Cluster Analysis was used to define the close games.Magnitude-based inference was employed to quantify the effect of each independent variable on the game outcome,by estimating the change in the probability of wining of a 2-SD,and the increase of each performance indicator.Results showed:1)in all games,increase in 9 technical and tactical performance related indicators(the number of shots,shots on target,shot accuracy,shots from set piece,opponent’s penalty area entries,ball possession,pass accuracy,successful clearance,and the number of counterattacks)and 3 running performance related indicators(distance covered when the ball is in possession of own team,distance covered in the attacking third and in the opponent’s penalty area)would bring substantial increase in the probability of winning.However,increase of the running distance covered when the ball is in possession of opponent team would reduce the winning probability;2)in close games,an increase in 5 technical and tactical performance related indicators(accuracy,shots from set piece,ball possession,pass accuracy,successful clearance)and 3 running performance related indicators(distance covered when the ball is in possession of own team,distance covered in the attacking third and in the opponent’s penalty area)would substantially increase the probability of winning.While the increase of the number of forward pass,low-intensity running,moderate-intensity running and distance covered when the ball is in possession of opponent team would bring substantial decline in the winning probability.The research showed that the FIFA World Cup winning teams were based on defensive basis,with counterattacks and set pieces as the main offensive and scoring means,which show a different strategy of the league teams.Therefore,teams at all levels should make proper tactical arrangements based on the system and the strength of their opponents.