我国重大疫情预警机制研究:困境、博弈与完善

The Study of China's Early Warning Mechanism of Major Epidemic Outbreaks:Plight,Game and Improvement

党的十九届四中全会指出,要加强公共卫生防疫和重大传染病防控。近期,我国新冠肺炎疫情的爆发,暴露了我国重大疫情预警机制存在不能及时预警的弊端。本文分析了我国现行预警机制的困境,并在对我国传统预警和基层预警进行演化博弈分析的基础上阐明引入基层预警的重要性,研究结果表明:(1)我国现行领警机制不能及时预警新发重大疫情;(2)引入基层预警有助于我国现行预警机制更及时监测新发重大疫情;(3)政府信任并鼓励基层预警,是基层预警发挥积极作用的关键;(4)应积极利用现代信息技术,构建国家、省和市的多重复合重大疫情预警机制。本文研究结论对完善我国重大疫情预警机制和健全国家公共卫生应急管理体系有重要启示。

The Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Commxonist Party of China pointed out that we should strengthen public health and epidemic prevention and control of major infectious diseases.Recently,COVID-19 outbreak in China revealed some shortcomings of China,s major epidemic warning mechanism.This paper analyzes the plight of the current early warning mechanism in China,and expounds the importance of introducing the local early warning based on the evolutionary game analysis of the tmditioiial early warning and the grass-roots early warning in China.The research results indicate that:(1)the current early warning mechanism in China can't give timely warning of new major epidemic outbreaks;(2)the introduction of the local early warning is helpful for the current early warning mechanism in China to monitor new major epidemics in a more timely maimer;(3)the key to play an active role for the local early warning is the government7 s trusts and encouragement;(4)modem information tech-nology should be actively used to build a multiple-complex major epidemic early warning mechanism at the level of nation,province and city.The conclusions of this paper have significant implications for improving the early warning mechanism of major epidemic outbreaks and the national public health emergency management system.