增值税减税、议价能力与企业价值——来自港股市场的经验证据

VAT Reduction,Bargaining Power and Firm Value——Evidence from Hong Kong Stock Market

近年来,中国政府推出了一系列针对企业的减税降费措施,但减税究竟在多大程度上能减轻企业实际税负,提升企业价值?究竟哪些企业是减税政策的最大受益者?本文以2018年增值税减税政策为背景,尝试利用股票市场的反应回答这一问题。利用港股上市企业为样本,进行双重差分实验设计,得到增值税减税对企业价值影响的因果关系。实证结果表明:增值税减税会使得企业价值增加,但议价能力不同的企业从减税中捕获的利益不同,议价能力强的企业享受到更多的减税好处。本文的发现有助于理解普惠式政策性减税背景下企业“获得感”存在巨大差异的原因,也有助于改进减税策略,优化减税的着力点,实施精准减税,使给定减税规模的社会福利效应最大化。

In recent years,Chinese government has launched a series of policies aiming at reducing firms’tax burdens.How do these tax reductions decrease the real tax burden and enhance the firm value?And who benefit from such tax cuts?Based on the 2018 VAT reduction policy,this paper attempts to answer these questions by studying the price responses in stock markets.We employ a DID strategy using Hong Kong listed companies respectively to estimate the impact of the VAT reduction on the stock prices.The empirical results show that the VAT reduction will increase firm value,while firms with strong bargaining powers will benefit more from the tax reduction.The findings in this study can offer insights to understand the transmission mechanism of tax policies,and give some guidance to optimize the tax reduction strategy in China.