Coupling the Occurrence of Correlative Plant Species to Predict the Habitat Suitability for Lesser White-fronted Goose (Anser erythropus) under Climate Change: A Case Study in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

气候变化下基于物种与植物耦联机制的小白额雁(Anser erythropus)潜在生境及适宜性研究--以长江流域中下游为例

Climate change and human activities influence species biodiversity by altering their habitats. This paper quantitatively analyzed the effects of climate change on a migratory bird. The Lesser White-fronted Goose(LWfG), a species which migrates via the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River region, is an herbivorous species of high ecological value. It is an endangered species threatened by climate change and human activities, so comprehensive information about its distribution is required. To assess the effectiveness of conservation of the LWfG under climate change, both climate variables and human activities are often used to predict the potential changes in the distribution and habitat suitability for LWfG. In this work, the current scenario and the Global Circulation Models(GCMs) climate scenarios were used to simulate the future distribution of the species. However, besides climate change and human activities, the spatial pattern of plants surrounding the wetland is also known to be closely related to the distribution of LWfG. Therefore, the distribution model results of six plant species related to LWfG’s diet selection were used as environment variables to reflect the changes of suitable LWfG habitat. These environmental variables significantly improved the model’s performance for LWfG, since the birds were clearly influenced by the plant distribution factors. Meanwhile, the suitable habitat area decreases by 2070 in GCM models under two representative concentration pathways scenarios(RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). More appropriate management and conservation policies should be taken to adapt to future climate change. These adjustments include modifications of the size, shape and use of the conservation area for this species.

气候变化和人类活动通过改变物种生境而影响物种多样性。小白额雁是长江流域中下游的一种具有较高生态价值的食草型濒危候鸟,受气候变化和人类活动威胁。本文以小白额雁为代表性物种,定量分析了气候变化对长江流域中下游候鸟潜在生境及适宜性空间分布格局的影响。采用Maxent模型模拟了当前情景和全球环流模型(GCMs)气候场景下小白额雁潜在生境及其适宜性分布。研究结果表明,小白额雁分布特征与其栖息地周边植物分布呈显著相关关系;运用Maxent模型模拟小白额雁六种主要食源植物的分布特征,并将其结果作为环境变量,将显著改善小白额雁潜在生境及其适宜性模型的模拟性能;在两种典型浓度情景(RCP 2.6和RCP8.5)下,2070年小白额雁潜在生境适宜性面积将下降。为应对气候变化对小白额雁的影响,应采取更加合理的管理措施和保护政策,包括调整保护区的大小、形状和用途。