中压配电网电力空间负荷密度分布仿真

Simulation of Spatial Load Density Distribution in Medium Voltage Distribution Network

针对传统方法没有考虑到同类负荷分布不均,导致无法为电力预测提供可靠的数据基础的问题,提出一种中压配电网应用电力空间负荷密度特性研究方法。按照中压配电网应用电力空间实际情况,通过元胞生成在应用电力空间中完成土地使用种类的模拟,利用GIS平台得到元胞的空间分布以及涉及属性数据,形成数据表。通过均匀核函数获取核密度计算的一般形式,采用核估计实现中压配电网应用电力空间负荷密度计算,解决负荷分布不均的问题,并确定中压配电网应用电力空间负荷密度及其置信区间。在此基础上运用Logistic曲线对负荷密度指标进行拟合,通过回归模型获取不同产业占比和负荷密度间的关系,得到差异分位数下负荷密度指标和各产业占比间的定量关系,获取负荷密度分布特性。分析实验结果得出,所提方法研究结果和实际结果基本一致,方法可靠。

In this article,a method for studying the spatial load density characteristics of medium voltage distribution network was put forward.According to the actual situation of power space of medium-voltage distribution network,the simulation of land use types was completed in the application of power space by cellular generation.The spatial distribution of cells and attribute data were obtained by GIS platform,and the data table was formed.The general form of nuclear density computation was obtained by uniform kernel function.Moreover,nuclear estimation was used to calculate the power space load density in medium-voltage distribution network,so as to solve the problem about uneven load distribution and determine the power space load density and confidence interval of power space in medium-voltage distribution network.On this basis,the load density indexes were fitted by Logistic curve.After that,the relationship between industrial proportion and load density was obtained by regression model.Finally,the quantitative relationship between load density index and industrial proportion under the differential quantile was obtained.Thus,the distribution feature of load density was obtained.Simulations show that the results of the proposed method are basically consistent with the actual results,so the proposed method is reliable.