澳大利亚留学生技术移民政策变迁动力机制分析——基于1973-2019年数据

The Research on the Dynamic Mechanism of Policy Change for the Skilled ImmigrationPolicy for Overseas Students in Australia--Based on Data from 1973 to 2019

作为澳大利亚技术移民政策重要组成部分之一,留学生技术移民政策从1973年至2019年经历了"扩张—限制—扩张—限制"的变迁轨迹,其背后到底有什么规律可循?又是什么动力推动了变迁?以注意力转移和政策信仰博弈之间的互动逻辑为基础,构建"焦点问题—政策图景"分析框架,从焦点问题和政策图景两个维度对政策变迁的动力机制进行探讨。研究发现澳大利亚留学生技术移民政策变迁呈现出了间断均衡性的特征,议会和媒体注意力的不均衡分配是变迁的表征,变迁的本质则来源于政策信仰的改变。发生在关键节点的焦点问题打破了原有的均衡状态,不同的政策图景之间为了争夺主导地位而进行了竞争,这一情况的背后是不同政策信仰之间的博弈。当旧垄断被瓦解而新的垄断得以建立之后,新的主导政策图景所代表的政策信仰获得了认可,政策重新回归均衡状态。

Within the whole immigration policy system in Australia,skilled immigration policy for overseas students plays a significant role.From the year of 1973 to 2019,the policy experienced the processes of“expanding-restraining-expanding-restraining”.This article seeks to exam the underlining factors that drive the changing process.Based on the causality relationship between attention shift and policy belief system,the framework“focus question—police image”is developed to explore the dynamic mechanism of policy change from the aspects of focus question and policy image.It is found that the policy change follows the punctuated-equilibrium pattern in which disproportionate parliamentary and media attention is extrinsic force of change,while the intrinsic force is from changing of policy beliefs.The occurrences of focus questions bring critical junctures of policy changes,leading to the breakdown of the previous policy monopolies.During the period of each punctuation,the relationship between different policy images is featured by conflicts,led by the game between different policy beliefs.The outcome of the policy punctuation is the establishment of some new equilibrium state with new major policy images.