摘要
通过分析水力发电站发电量与地区降水量之间的关系建立由降水驱动的水电响应模型,并在此基础上,使用逐步聚类方法对中尺度的区域气候模式进行统计降尺度,得到未来高精度的降水数据,以此研究未来降水变化对水力发电的影响。以大渡河流域某电站为案例,对其发电量进行模拟与预报,研究在未来气候变化条件下该电站的水力发电变化。结果表明,该电站在未来不同月份和调度时期的降水变化存在差异,由此会造成未来发电高峰期缩短,发电峰值下降,但全年总发电量基本保持不变。
In order to obtain the influence rule of precipitation on hydropower,a demand response mode of hydropower is proposed according to the relationship between the hydropower generation and local precipitation. The high-resolution precipitation data used for this model is acquired by the Stepwise Clustering Analysis through downscaling the mid-scale regional climate model and a hydropower station in Dadu river basin is used as a study case to simulate and forecast power generation. The results show that the precipitation change of the hydropower station is different in different months and scheduling periods in the future,so that the power generation peak time will be shortened and peak value will be decreased,but the annual total power generation will remain unchange.
作者
李薇
包哲
李霁恒
郭军红
陈卓
侯保灯
Li Wei;Bao Zhe;Lijiheng;Guo Junhong;Chen Zhuo;Hou Baodeng(MOE Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental System Optimization,College of Environment Science and Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)
出处
《太阳能学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第3期184-191,共8页
Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica
基金
国家重点研发计划(2018YFE0196000)
需求侧多能互补优化与供需互动技术北京市重点实验室开放基金(YDB51201901510)
中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目(2017XS040)。
关键词
降水
气候模型
预报
水电
逐步聚类
precipitation
climate models
forecasting
hydropower
stepwise clustering
