产业集聚、外商直接投资与碳减排——基于中介效应与面板门槛模型分析

Industrial Agglomeration,Foreign Direct Investment and Carbon Emission Reduction:Based on the Mediation Effect and Threshold Model Analysis

作为当今世界碳排放量第一的国家,中国如何发展绿色低碳经济,走好可持续发展道路,备受国内外关注.选取2004—2017年我国省际面板数据,基于产业集聚外部效应视角,采用中介效应分析方法研究产业集聚对碳排放的影响,并以外商直接投资作为门槛变量,进一步分析二者关系.研究结论表明:①外商直接投资在产业集聚影响碳排放的过程中起到部分中介效应,中介效应值为31.1%;②产业集聚与碳排放之间存在双重门槛效应,二者关系呈倒U型.当外商直接投资处于低水平时,产业集聚会增加碳排放量,当外商直接投资水平跨越更高门槛值,产业集聚的正外部性凸显,抑制碳排放量增加;③经济发展水平和能源结构对碳排放量均产生显著正向影响,产业结构优化能抑制碳排放量增加;④经库兹涅茨曲线检验,产业集聚与碳排放关系为倒U型,且产业集聚临界值为2.389.

As the country with the world’s largest carbon emissions,China is developing a green and low.carbon economy and taking a good road of sustainable development.Based on the inter.provincial panel data of 2004.2017,and the external effect of industrial agglomeration,the mediation effect analysis method was used to study the impact of industrial agglomeration on carbon emissions,and foreign direct investment was used as a threshold variable to further analyze the relationship between the two.The follow ing conclusions are drawn.①F oreign direct investment plays a partial mediating role in the process of industrial agglomeration affecting carbon emissions,with a mediating effect value of 31.1%.②There is a double threshold effect betw een industrial agglomeration and carbon emissions,and the relationship between the two is inverted U.shaped.When foreign direct investment is at a low level,industrial gatherings increase carbon emissions.When foreign direct investment levels cross a higher threshold,the positive externalities of industrial agglomeration are highlighted,and carbon emissions are suppressed.③The level of economic development and energy structure have a significant positive impact on carbon emissions,and industrial structure optimization can inhibit the increase of carbon emissions.④According to the Kuznets curve test,the relationship between industrial agglomeration and carbon emissions is an inverted U-shape,and the critical value of industrial agglomeration is 2.389.