基于多要素评估的快响应轨道救援方法研究

The Research on Fast Response to Orbit Rescue Method Based on Multi-Factor Evaluation

近十年全球航天发射活动成功率一直保持在90%以上,但发射失败仍难以避免,航天事故导致各国对空间资源的开发成本大幅增加,制约航天产业的持续发展。在航天发射事故中未进入预定轨道的发射事故占比接近50%,存在很大的救援空间,对典型航天事故影响进行分析,提出了卫星救援多要素估值评价方法,从经济成本、时间成本、产业影响、社会影响等多要素对卫星损失和救援代价进行综合评估,提供救援任务全流程规范指导,可有效提升轨道救援系统的快速响应能力。

In the past ten years,the success rate of global space launch activities has been maintained at over 90%,but launch failures are still difficult to avoid.As a result of space accidents,the development costs of space resources in various countries have increased significantly,constraining the sustainable development of the aerospace industry.In the aerospace launch accident,the proportion of launch accidents that do not enter the predetermined orbit is close to 50%.There is big market for rescue.The impact of typical space accidents is analyzed and a multi-element evaluation method is proposed for orbit rescue.Comprehensive assessment of the satellite loss and rescue costs from multiple factors such as economic cost,time cost,industry and social impact,providing guidance on the overall process of orbit rescue missions,it can effectively improve the rapid response capability of the orbit rescue system.