城市人口变动与土地供给吻合度研究——以河南省为例

Analysis of the Match Between Urban Population and the Supply of Land——Take Henan Province as an Example

城市人口数量和人口变动将是确定未来城市土地供给的重要依据。行政区域内人口总量和增量是影响域内城市人口数量和土地供给的长期因素,城市常住人口总量、增量是影响城市土地供给的现实因素,建成区的面积反映了现有的土地供给情况,城市土地供给还需要考虑周期性和特殊项目用地。依据这些理论,通过对河南省的统计数据研究发现:以人口变动为基础的城市土地供给需要设计一个适当的指标并设置合理区间;同时,城市人口数据统计需要以建成区人口为依据。根据河南省数据分析结果,建议将指标设置为一个城市用地增长在省内所有城市用地增长中所占的百分比与一个城市人口增长在省内所有城市人口增长中所占百分比的差,该差值的区间为±3%。

The size and change of urban population will be the important basis of urban land supply in the future.The total municipal population and increment of regional population are the long-term factors that affect the size of urban population and amount of land supply in the region.The totality of permanent urban population and its increment is the realistic factor that involves the quantity of land supply.The built-up area reflects the existing land supply,and the land supply needs to consider periodic and special projects.Based on these theories and through the statistical data research of Henan Province,the paper found that the urban land supply based on population change needs to design an appropriate index and set a reasonable interval,and at the same the data of urban population statistics need to be based on the population in the built-up area.According to the result of data analysis of Henan Province,it is suggested that the index of the difference be set up between the percentage of urban land growth of one city shared by that of all the other cities in the province and the percentage of urban population growth of one city out of that of all the other cities in the province,the range of which should be plus or minus 3%.