我国碳市场匹配深度研究

An In-depth Study on China′s Carbon Market Matching

基于中国8个试点碳市场自正式交易至2019年3月1日的碳配额交易数据,通过运用倾向得分匹配法,分析了碳市场的匹配深度,并在此基础上研究碳市场兼容性及原因分析。研究结果表明:目前我国所有碳市场中,两两碳市场衔接有46%的碳市场不能实现匹配,另有超过53%的碳市场能实现匹配,其中超过93%的碳市场匹配深度介于49%~53%;深圳和福建碳市场具有较强的兼容性,其中深圳碳市场的不同交易类型兼容性差异较大,造成不同兼容性的原因可能与配额分配方案和抵消机制等制度、管理机构、法律法规的区域性有关。

The article is based on the carbon quota trading data of China′s eight pilot carbon markets from formal trading to March 1,2019.Through the use of propensity score matching method,the paper analyzes the matching depth of the carbon market,and on this basis,studies the carbon market compatibility and Cause Analysis.The results show that at present,46% of the two carbon markets in China′s carbon market cannot be matched,and another more than 53% of the two carbon markets can be matched,and more than 93% of the carbon market match depth is between 49% and 53%.Shenzhen and Fujian carbon markets have strong compatibility,and the compatibility of different transaction types in Shenzhen carbon market is quite different.The resulting different compatibility may be related to the regionality of institutions such as quota allocation schemes and offset mechanisms,regulatory agencies,laws and regulations.