基于关联分析模型的农产品价格趋势预测

The Forecast of Agricultural Commodity Price Trends Based on Association Analysis Model

以全国不同行业的重点农产品月均价格数据为依据,运用K-means和Apriori算法对农产品间的价格趋向进行实证研究。结果显示,基于时间序列的各类农产品价格皆呈正向关系,同行业的农产品之间价格波动存在着关联关系,畜牧业和渔业产品较为显著。不同行业的农产品价格涨跌互相影响,其中玉米是唯一对畜牧产品和水果皆有影响的粮食作物,水产品和其他行业农产品之间存在着单向的正向关联规则。

Based on the monthly average prices of key agricultural products in different industries in China,this paper uses K-means and Apriori algorithms to conduct empirical research on the price trend between agricultural products.The results show that the prices of various agricultural products based on time series are positively related,and there is a correlation between price fluctuations among agricultural products in the same industry,especially the products in husbandry and fishery.The price of agricultural products in different industries affects each other.Among them,corn is the only grain crops that has an impact on livestock products and fruits.Moreover,there are unidirectional association rules between aquatic products(carp,grass carp and silver carp)and other agricultural products.