城市间经济引力模型实证研究及敏感性分析

Empirical Study and Sensitivity Analysis of the Economic Gravity Model Among Cities

更精准地预测城市间经济引力强度,有利于指导城市间交通基础设施建设。首先,对现状城市间引力进行实证研究,建立城市间经济引力模型;其次,采用城市间交通客流交互量对经济引力进行相关性表征,即认为城市间客流交互量越大的,其经济引力也越大;最后,基于手机信令数据推算各城市间客流交互量,对现状广州与粤港澳大湾区及省内城市间引力进行了建模,并对模型中的主要影响因素进行了敏感性分析。结果表明,根据人口、GDP、产业结构相似程度、两市间时间(空间)距离等影响因素建立的模型能够较好地预测城市间的经济引力。此外,两市间的时间距离对城市引力的影响比空间距离更大,规划城际性的快速交通网络对于提升两个城市间的经济引力具有积极作用。

More accurate prediction of economic gravity strength among cities is conducive to guiding the construction of inter-city transportation infrastructure.Firstly,empirical research on the current inter-city gravitation as well as a model of inter-city economic gravitation is needed.Secondly,correlation characterization of economic gravity is made by using the interactive amount of passenger flow between cities,that is,the larger the interactive amount of passenger flows between cities,the greater the economic attraction.Finally,based on cellphone signaling data,the passenger flow interactions between cities are estimated,the current gravity between Guangzhou and the cities in Guangdong province is modeled,and the sensitivity analysis of the main influencing factors in the model is performed.The empirical analysis results show that the model established by influencing factors such as population,GDP,industrial structure similarity,and time(space)distance between the two cities can better predict the economic attraction between cities.In addition,the time distance between the two cities has a greater impact on urban gravity than the space distance,so that planning an intercity rapid transit network has a positive effect on improving the economic interaction between two cities.