资本账户开放与顺周期财政政策倾向——来自跨国面板数据的证据

Capital Account Liberalization and Pro-Cyclicality Fiscal Policy:A Cross-Country Analysis

在构建一个局部均衡模型的基础上,利用92个国家1960—2016年的面板数据,实证考察资本账户开放对财政政策周期性的影响,得到三个方面的研究结论。(1)主权国家整体上具有明显的顺周期财政政策倾向,并且随时间的推移呈现一定增强趋势;发展中国家的顺周期财政政策倾向要远远高于发达国家。(2)随着资本流动管理的强化,顺周期财政政策倾向趋于减弱。从管制口径来看,资本账户流入管制对顺周期财政政策的缓解作用要明显强于资本账户流出管制;从管制类型来看,股票、房地产等市场的顺周期缓解效果要明显强于直接投资。(3)对于发展中国家,适当的资本流动管理可以弱化顺周期财政政策的不利影响。研究结论亦支持中国当前渐进式的资本账户开放路径。

Based on the construction of a local equilibrium model,this paper uses the panel data of 92 countries from 1960 to 2016 to analyze the impact of capital account liberalization on fiscal cyclicality.The study shows the following.Firstly,sovereign countries have obvious pro-cyclical fiscal policy and show an increasing trend as time goes on,while fiscal pro-cyclicality of developing countries tends to be stronger than that of developed countries.Secondly,with the strengthening of capital flow management,fiscal pro-cyclicality will tend to weaken.Capital account inflow control has a stronger mitigation effect on fiscal pro-cyclicality than that of capital account outflow control.The effects on fiscal pro-cyclicality of stocks,real estate and other markets is significantly stronger than direct investment.Thirdly,for developing countries,appropriate capital flow management can alleviate the adverse effects of pro-cyclical fiscal policy.This paper supports China’s current progressive path of capital account liberalization.