期望绩效反馈会影响股价崩盘风险吗?——基于中国A股上市公司的实证分析

Can Expected Performance Feedback Affect the Crash Risk of Stock Price:An Empirical Analysis Based on A Share Listed Companies in China

以2003—2017年沪深两市A股上市公司为研究样本,实证检验消极绩效反馈下期望绩效差距对股价崩盘风险的影响。结果表明:当企业未实现组织期望绩效时,实际绩效低于期望绩效的程度越大,股价崩盘风险越高;较高的内部控制质量和控股股东持股比例能够弱化期望绩效差距对股价崩盘风险的正向影响。进一步分析发现,企业信息透明度在期望绩效差距与股价崩盘风险之间起部分中介作用。文章从期望绩效反馈的视角深入阐述了股价波动的成因,同时从内部监督的角度提出了平稳资本市场表现的对策。

Taking A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2003-2017 as a sample to test the relationship between expected performance feedback and the crash risk of stock price.The results show that when firm fail to achieve organizational expected performance,the greater the degree of actual performance is lower than organizational expected performance,the higher the crash risk of stock price.Higher internal control quality and shareholding ratio of controlling shareholders can weaken the positive relationship between the gap of expected performance and the crash risk of stock price.Further research shows that the expected performance gap acts on the stock price collapse risk through the path that affects the transparency of enterprise information.This paper is helpful to understand the cause of stock price fluctuation from the perspective of expected performance feedback,and puts forward the countermeasures of stable capital market performance from the angle of internal supervision.