基于MGM(1,n,r)的主动配电网中长期负荷预测

MID-LONG TERM LOAD FORECASTING OF ACTIVE DISTRIBUTION NETWORK BASED ON MGM(1,n,r)

针对主动配电网负荷长期发展的影响因素较多,而传统灰色预测模型只适用单变量、精度较低的缺陷,提出利用遗传算法对灰色模型的参数搜索最优解,构建多变量灰色遗传MGM(1,n,r)中长期负荷预测模型。仿真实例表明,相比传统灰色模型,遗传算法在主动配电网中长期负荷预测中应用性更强,具有显著的预测精度及优势。

There are many factors influencing the long-term development of load of active distribution network,however,the traditional grey model is only applicable to single variable and low prediction accuracy,the grey model parameters are optimized by genetic algorithm and the medium and long term load forecasting method for multi-variable grey genetic MGM(1,n,r)is presented. The simulation example shows that compared with the traditional grey model,this algorithm is more applicable in the long-term load forecasting of active distribution network and has a significant prediction precision and advantages.