东北振兴政策效果评价--基于Oaxaca-Blinder回归的实证分析

Evaluation of the Effect of Northeast Revitalization Policy:A Difference-in-Difference Research Based on Oaxaca-Blinder Regression

新时代推进东北全面、全方位振兴,需要更加全面、系统的政策配合,因此,对东北振兴政策效果进行客观评价,总结其中的利弊得失,具有重要的现实意义。选用1999-2015年我国地级及以上城市数据,使用基于Oaxaca-Blinder回归的双重差分模型对东北振兴政策效果进行评价,实证结果表明:东北振兴政策提升了东北地区的人均GDP;在此基础上,以《东北地区振兴规划》为依据分析发现,东北振兴政策显著提升了东北地区的投资水平,但是对于基础设施等方面的建设并没有明显的促进作用。东北振兴政策虽然促进了东北地区经济的发展,但是并没有走出投资驱动的传统路径,政策机制的预期效果也未能完全实现,为二次衰退埋下了隐患。

To promote the comprehensive and omni-directional revitalization of Northeast China in the new era,we need more comprehensive and systematic policy. Therefore,it is of great significance to objectively evaluate the effect of the policy of "revitalizing the Northeast"and sort out its gains and losses. Based on the data of prefecture-level and above cities in China from 1999 to 2015,this paper evaluates the policy effect of"revitalization of Northeast China"by using the difference-in-difference model based on Oaxaca-Blinder regression. The policy of "revitalization of Northeast China"has increased the per capita GDP of Northeast China. On this basis,w e take the"Northeast Revitalization Plan"as the evaluation mechanism of the policy,and find that the policy has significantly improved the investment level of the Northeast region. How ever,it does not play a significant role in promoting the construction of infrastructure and other aspects. This paper holds that although the policy of "revitalization of Northeast China"has promoted the economic development of the northeast region,it has not gone out of the traditional path driven by investment,and the expected effect of the policy mechanism has not been fully realized,w hich has laid a hidden danger for the second recession.