土木工程地震灾害风险治理技术框架研究

Framework of risk governing of earthquake disaster for civil engineering

土木工程地震灾害风险治理是我国未来防震减灾工作的重点,但其技术框架目前尚为空白。本文剖析了既有工程风险管理技术框架的缺欠,借鉴国际COSO风险管理理论和现代管理学风险治理的理念,提出了土木工程地震灾害风险治理的基本内涵和要点,建立了土木工程地震灾害风险治理技术框架。研究表明,虽然目前我国工程风险管理技术研究已取得很大进展,但理论框架方面存在着要素不全、逻辑欠缺、隶属关系不清、用词混淆以及释义不详等不足;国际商业COSO风险管理框架是目前国际上应用最为成熟的风险管理理论,可以作为构建本文和其它领域风险管理框架的重要参考依据。本文建立的土木工程地震灾害风险治理技术框架,以目标战略、性态分析和监测修订作为3个主控要素,由包括27个要素的3层架构组成,符合现代管理科学思维和逻辑,考虑因素齐全,隶属关系清晰,具有工程可操作性,并具备国际通用性特点。以性态分析作为风险的识别、评估、组合和响应的统一描述,与地震工程性态设计理念一致,也从根本上解决了现有工程风险管理技术框架逻辑混乱和要素隶属关系不清的问题。

Risk governing for earthquake disaster of civil engineering is the theme of future earthquake prevention and mitigation work in China, however, field’s technical framework is still blank. This paper analyzes the disadvantages of the existing technical framework of engineering risk management in China, draws lessons from the international COSO Enterprise Risk Management Framework, gives the basic connotation of earthquake disaster governing of civil engineering, and puts forward the framework for earthquake disaster governing of civil engineering. The research shows that although great progress has been made in the exploration of engineering risk management in China, there are still some deficiencies in the risk management framework, such as lack of elements, lack of logic, unclear subordination, word confusion and lack of definition. COSO Enterprise Risk Management Framework is the most mature risk management framework in the commercial field among worldwide, which can be used as an important reference for constructing risk management framework in this paper and other fields. Framework for earthquake disaster governing of civil engineering established in this paper takes the strategy and performance as the main control elements, and consists of three layers, including 27 elements. This framework conforms to scientific logic, has a complete set of consideration factors, with a clear subordination relationship, and regard to international universality.