农业政策对粮食生产技术选择影响及空间溢出效应

Agricultural Policies and Spatial Spillover Effect of Technological Selection of Grain Production

要实现粮食生产要素配置结构性的有效调整,追求"量变"基础上的"质变",技术的作用不言而喻.基于1995—2018年省级面板数据,利用格兰杰因果检验得到农业政策与粮食生产技术选择存在因果关系的结论,进一步通过空间自回归模型实证分析农业政策对技术选择的影响及空间溢出效应.结果表明:省级粮食生产技术选择指数按功能区不同呈现依次递减的规律,且表现出正向的空间溢出效应;粮食生产功能区的技术选择指数存在差异,粮食主销区内部差异尤为明显;农业政策能够提升粮食生产的技术选择指数,造成地区技术选择与要素禀赋的偏离,导致粮食生产倾向于采取"赶超型"战略.基于此,建议政府应优化农业政策投入结构、促进地区农业技术与要素禀赋相匹配,实现地区间粮食生产协同发展.

It is self-evident that technology plays an important role in realizing effective structural adjust ment of grain production factors allocation and pursuing“qualitative change”based on“quantitative change”.Based on the provincial panel data from 1995 to 2018,the Granger causality test was adopted to discover a causal relationship between agricultural policy and technical selection of grain production.Further,the spatial autoregressive model was used to analyze the impact of agricultural policies on technical selection and the spa tial spillover effect.The results showed that the index of provincial grain production technical selection de creased in accordance with the different functional areas and showed a positive spatial spillover effect.Differ ences exist in the technical selection index of the functional areas of grain production,especially in the main grain selling areas.The agricultural policies promote the technical selection index of grain production resulting in the deviation between regional technical selection and factor endowment,which leads to the tendency to adopt the“catch-up”strategy in grain production.