农民分化与新型农村社会养老保险制度减贫作用评价——基于5省10县1253个样本的实证分析

Farmers’Differentiation and Evaluation of Role of New Rural Social Endowment Insurance in Poverty Reduction:An Empirical Analysis Based on 1253 Samples of 10 Counties in 5 Provinces

采用Ologit模型,基于5省10县1 253个样本的调查,考察不同类型农户在新农保减贫作用评价上的差异.研究发现:第一,农民对新农保的减贫作用评价不高,认为"作用较大"的比例不超过三分之一;第二,不同类型的农户对新农保的减贫作用评价具有较大差异,纯农户的评价最高、兼业户次之,非农户最低,在使用替代变量进行估计后,这一结论具有稳健性;第三,对新农保了解程度越高,愿意提升缴费档次的农民,对新农保的减贫作用评价更高;第四,从地区来看,东部地区相比西部地区对新农保的减贫作用评价较低,但中部与西部农民的评价不存在显著差异.据此,建议适度提高基础养老金的给予标准,提高对农民选择较高档次缴费的补贴或激励.

Using the Ologit model,based on the survey of 1253 samples from 22 towns of 5 provinces,this paper examined the differences in farmers’evaluation of the role of new rural social endowment insurance in reducing poverty.The paper found that:First,farmers did not give high evaluation for the effect of the insur ance,and the proportion of farmers who selected“quite effective”is not more than one third.Second,great dif ferences exist in the effect among different types of farmers.The pure farmers have the highest evaluation and the non-farm households the lowest.The conclusion is robust when estimated by adopting the substitution vari ables.Third,farmers who better understand the new rural social endowment insurance and who are willing to raise the payment level have higher evaluation on the role of new rural social endowment insurance in reducing poverty.Fourth,from the perspective of the regions,evaluation of the eastern region is lower,but no significant differences are found among farmers in the central and western regions.It is recommended that the standard be moderately raised for the provision of basic pensions and subsidies or incentives be increased for farmers to choose contributions of higher levels.