基于水足迹理论下宁夏水资源经济效益脱钩分析

Decoupling Analysis of Economic Efficiency of Water Resources in Ningxia under Water Footprint Theory

通过水足迹理论,引入Tapio脱钩弹性系数,构建水资源与经济发展关系,实证分析2010-2016年宁夏水资源利用与经济发展之间的关系。结果表明:①宁夏地区总水足迹和人均水足迹均呈减少态势,总水足迹中农业用水所占比重高达90%;②水资源利用效益从2010年23.81元/m^3显著提高至2016年47.08元/m^3;③水资源利用与经济发展的Tapio脱钩评价呈强弱脱钩变化的发展趋势。仅从水资源与经济的关系来看,宁夏水资源能够满足GDP高速增长,水资源压力较小,但受黄河补水调控的不确定性和分布不均衡的水足迹组成将会对地区经济、社会、生态的高质量发展带来潜在隐患,应引起高度重视。

Based on water footprint theory and combined with Tapio decoupling elasticity coefficient,the paper empirically analyses the relationship between water resources utilization and economic development in Ningxia from 2010 to 2016 by constructing a water resources and economic development model.The results show that the total water footprint and per capita water footprint in Ningxia are decreasing,and the proportion of agricultural water in the total water footprint is as high as 90%.The utilization efficiency of water resources is significantly increased from 23.81 yuan/m^3 in 2010 to 47.08 yuan/m^3 in 2016.The water resources utilization and Tapio decoupling evaluation of economic development is changing between strong and weak decoupling,which shows that Ningxia’s water resources can meet the high-speed growth of Ningxia’s GDP and the water resources pressure keep on a low level.However,the unbalanced water footprint composition will bring potential dangers to the sustainable and coordinated development of regional economy,society and ecology,which should be paid great attention.