基于模糊集合分析法的西江不同站点汛期分期研究

Study on Flood Season Staging of Different Stations in Xijiang River Based on Fuzzy Set Analysis

西江流域洪水由暴雨形成,具有明显的季节性变化规律,研究汛期分期对于优化流域水库工程运行、协调防洪与兴利矛盾具有重要意义。采用模糊集合分析法对西江不同站点汛期进行了分期研究,综合确定武宣站汛期分期为:4月1日至5月26日为汛前期,5月27日至8月15日为主汛期,8月16日至10月31日为汛末期;大湟江口站汛期分期为:4月1日至6月3日为汛前期,6月4日至8月14日为主汛期,8月15日至10月31日为汛末期;梧州站汛期分期为:4月1日至6月6日为汛前期,6月7日至8月30日为主汛期,8月31日至10月31日为汛末期。研究结果表明,西江不同站点汛期分期在空间上是存在差异性的,采用模糊集合分析法划定的各站点汛期分期结果与站点实际情况及实际防汛实践经验相吻合,可为西江防汛抗旱和水库群优化调度提供技术参考。

The flood of the Xijiang River basin is formed by the heavy rain,with obvious seasonal variation law,and the study of the flood season staging is of great significance to optimize the operation of the reservoir and coordinate the contradiction between flood control and benefit promotion.This paper studies the flood season staging of different stations in Xijiang River by the fuzzy set analysis method,and comprehensively determines the stages of the flood season of different stations as follows:for Wuxuan station,the pre-flood period is from April 1 to May 26,the main flood period is from May 27 to August 15,and the post-flood period is from August 16 to October 31;for Dahuangjiangkou station,the pre-flood period is from April 1 to June 3,the main flood period is from June 4 to August 14,and the post-flood period is from August 15 to October 31;while for Wuzhou station:the pre-flood period is from April 1 to June 6,the main flood period is from June 7 to August 30,and the post-flood period is from August 31 to October 31.The results show that the period of the flood season staging of different stations in Xijiang is different,and the period of flood season staging set by the fuzzy set analysis method is consistent with that obtained from the actual flood control experience and the actual situation of the stations,which can provide the technical reference for the flood control&drought relief and the optimal scheduling of the reservoir group.