东北三省典型气象灾害对粮食生产影响特征研究

Impact of typical meteorological disasterson grain crop production over Northeastern China

基于改进后的Mann-Kendall趋势检验方法(MMK)对东北三省1949—2015年各省主要作物种植时序变化特征进行研究。利用1949—2015年该地区典型气象灾害(干旱、洪涝、低温、风雹、台风)的受灾、成灾及绝收面积构建对应灾害类型的灾害减产成数,并利用趋势分析、脱钩关系评价模型评价识别各类灾害对东北三省粮食生产的影响特征。研究结果表明:1949—2015年东北三省粮食作物种植面积比例降低趋势显著,典型作物产量由高到低为:玉米、稻谷、小麦及大豆,且四种作物产量均呈增加趋势。东北三省受灾害影响程度由高到低分别为:旱灾、洪涝、风雹、低温及台风。粮食种植面积和粮食产量与典型气象灾害间的脱钩关系相似,2000年以来东北三省旱灾和洪涝灾害与种植面积间以绝对脱钩关系为主。

Agricultural production suffered higher risk of meteorological disasters in the context of global cli mate change.Modified Mann-Kendall trend test(MMK)was employed to specify the temporal characteristics of main crop-plating over Northeastern China(NE)during 1949—2015.Meanwhile,comprehensive crop fail ure ratios of typical meteorological disasters(drought,flood,cryogenic disaster,hail,typhoon)were con structed separately based on damage area,inundated area and the total crop failure area.The trend analy sis and decoupling relationship evaluation were applied to clarify the features of comprehensive crop failure ratios of typical meteorological disasters.The results indicate that the proportion of grain crops decrease sig nificantly in the NE.Typical crops with their yields ranked from high to low were corn,rice,wheat and soybean.And the yields of all four crops showed an increasing trend.The extent of the five typical disas ters was remarkably broader during 1949-2015.In terms of crop yield losses,the degree of disasters af fected order from highest to lowest is drought,flood,hail,cryogenic disaster and typhoon.The decoupling relationship of typical meteorological disasters and the cultivated area of main crops was similar with the de coupling relationship type within the 5 disasters and main crop yield.Since 2000,the decoupling class of the drought/flood disasters and the cultivated area of main crops in the NE have been dominated by abso lute decoupling.