洪涝灾害三参数损失函数的构建Ⅰ——基本原理

A three-parameter flood damage function,part Ⅰ.Theory and development

为把握快速城镇化、社会经济增长、防洪工程标准提高背景下暴雨洪涝灾害风险的演变趋势,基于洪水风险理论及城市洪涝灾害的连锁性与损失突变性特征,探讨了洪涝灾害风险演变驱动机制,构建了具有物理意义的三参数洪涝灾害损失-重现期(D-R)风险函数,明确了曲线形态中临界洪灾损失值Dc、临界重现期Rc、区域脆弱性综合指数k等控制参数的物理意义。该函数可作为洪涝灾害风险评估与预测的一种便捷手段,找到洪涝灾害风险演化的转折点,可为防灾减灾决策提供依据,同时也可应用于对防洪工程体系减灾效益的评估。

In order to describe the evolution trend of flood risk under the background of social economic growth,rapid urbanization,and improvement of flood control standards,the driving mechanism of flood di saster risk evolution is discussed on the basis of the flood risk theory,chain-reaction and mutability of ur ban flood damage.The flood damage-return period function is analyzed as S-shaped curve with three param eters.critical damage Dc,critical return period Rc and regional integrated vulnerability index k,respective ly.The function can be used as a simple and fast method for flood risk assessment,prediction,and flood risk reduction benefits assessment.The turning points of the curve provide scientific basis for disaster pre vention and reduction decision-making.