新冠肺炎疫情对经济会有多大影响--基于社会消费品零售总额的角度

How much impact will the new crown pneumonia outbreak have on the economy?--Based on the perspective of total retail sales of consumer goods

自武汉地区爆发新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情,恰逢春节,众多城市发布延迟开工的通知,对娱乐业和餐饮业产生重大负面影响,不可避免地导致社会消费品零售总额显著下滑。为探究此次疫情的影响程度,本文从社会消费品零售总额这一宏观经济指标分析,测算此次疫情对该指标的影响大小。首先以北京、上海两地城市数据为例,借鉴2003年SARS对经济冲击是否显著来类比本次新型冠状病毒对经济的冲击。结果表明疫情在短期内会对经济产生显著影响,且在年内完成修复。后续本文采用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)预测此次新型冠状病毒对武汉地区社会消费品零售总额的影响值大小,预测约191亿元,影响有限。

The outbreak of NPC since the Wuhan area coincided with the Spring Festival. Many cities issued notices of delayed working, which had an important negative impact on the entertainment industry and the catering industry, and inevitably led to a significant decline in total retail sales of consumer goods. In order to explore the impact of the epidemic, this article analyzes the macroeconomic indicator of total retail sales of consumer goods, and estimates the impact of the epidemic on the indicator. First, take the data from Beijing and Shanghai as examples, and use the reference to whether the economic impact of SARS in 2003 is significant to compare the impact of this new type of coronavirus on the economy. The results show that the epidemic situation will have a significant impact on the economy in the short term, and repairs will be completed within the year. In the following article, the gray prediction model GM(1,1) is used to predict the impact of the new coronavirus on the total retail sales of consumer goods. The forecast is about 19.1 billion yuan with limited impact.