春节人口流动对新冠肺炎疫情的影响——基于互联网大数据的视角

The impact of spring festival migration on coronavirus epidemic

本文基于互联网人口流动大数据研究了春节人口流动对新冠肺炎疫情的影响。2020年1月23日武汉"封城"有效控制了人口外流,但已流出的600万人口成为疫情传播主要渠道,其中三成为跨省流动,去向主要是河南、湖南、安徽、江西等周边省市以及三大都市圈。春节后人口大规模回流可能加剧疫情"二次传播",应高度关注四大劳务输出通道、三大经济核心区、超大规模城市和集中返城复工高峰期。建议进一步阻断疫情"二次传播"渠道;重点加强大城市疫情防控力度;分批次返城复工设计,避免集中返城复工;掌握疫情防控和保增长、保障物资供应之间的平衡,分地区分行业分步骤推动企业灵活复工。

This paper studies the impact of mass short-term migration during the Spring Festival on the outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in China, based on the internet big data. Wuhan Quarantine on January 23, 2020 effectively reduced the outflow of population, but 6 million people had already outflowed, which became the main channel of epidemic transmission. Among them, 30 percent are cross-provincial flows. Their major destinations are surrounding provinces, including Henan, Hunan, Anhui and Jiangxi, and the three metropolitan areas. After the Spring Festival, the large-scale return of population may aggravate the secondary transmission of the epidemic. Attention should be paid to the four labor-flow channels, three economic core areas, large cities and the transportation peak period. It is suggested to further block the channel of secondary transmission, strengthen the prevention of the epidemic situation in large cities, decentralize the traffic flow, keep the balance between epidemic prevention and economic growth.