公共卫生教育的双斑块SIR传染病模型的敏感性分析

Sensitivity Analysis of a SIR Two Plaque Infectious Disease Model in Public Health Education

建立了考虑公共卫生教育的双斑块迁移SIR传染病模型,并采用PRCC方法和灵敏度指标法分别对模型基本再生数与地方病平衡点进行了敏感性分析,给出了各参数对系统动力学性态及各斑块疾病传播的影响.结果表明:公共卫生教育有利于控制疾病的传播,但恢复率是对疾病传播最敏感的负相关参数,故在进行公共卫生教育的同时,还应注重治疗水平的提高.另外,人口的流出都有利于本地区疾病的控制,但不利于其他地区疾病的控制,所以,疾病爆发后有必要控制人口的流动.

A SIR two-plaque migration infectious disease model with public health education was built. Then the sensitivity of the basic regeneration number and the endemic disease equilibrium point was analyzed by the PRCC method and the sensitivity index method. The effects of parameters on dynamic behaviors of the system and the spread of the each plaque disease were given. The results show that public health education is conducive to controlling the spread of disease, but the recovery rate is the most sensitive negative related parameter to the spread of disease. Therefore, while carrying out the public health education, treatment level should also be improved. In addition, the outflow of population helps to control spread of diseases in the region, but it isn’t conducive to the control of diseases in the other regions. Therefore, it is necessary to control the movement of population after the outbreak of disease.