煤层突出危险性预测指标敏感性分析

Sensitivity Analysis of Coal Seam Outburst Risk Prediction Indicators

为提高4煤层突出危险性预测预报准确性,针对4煤层实际地质条件,采用实验室测试、历史数据统计分析、现场试验考察及现场扩大验证相结合的研究手段,确定4煤层的突出预测敏感指标为钻孔瓦斯涌出初速度q和钻屑量指标S,并提出执行钻屑量S临界值为6 kg/m和钻孔瓦斯涌出初速度q临界值为5 L/min的建议。经试验区1 600 m试验考察研究确定的敏感指标及执行的临界值建议合理有效,确保安全高效生产及降低防突措施成本。

In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the 4 coal seam outburst risk, the comprehensive prediction of 4 coal seams is determined by the combination of laboratory tests, historical data statistical analysis, field test investigation and on-site expansion verification. For the drilling gas, the initial velocity q and the cuttings amount index S are generated, and a proposal is made to perform the cutting dust amount S critical value of 6 kg/m and the initial velocity of the drilling gas emission q to be 5 L/min.The sensitivity index determined by the 1 600 m test in the test area and the critical value of the implementation are recommended to be reasonable and effective, ensuring safe and efficient production and reducing the cost of anti-burst measures.