最低工资执行效应实证研究——以上海市(1993—2016)为例

An Empirical Study on the Implementation Effect of Minimum Wage——A Case Study of Shanghai(1993—2016)

最低工资执行效应是最低工资制度成效的重要体现。以上海市1993—2016年相关时间序列数据作为研究样本,采用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验以及基于VAR模型的动态关系分析等计量经济学方法,综合探究最低工资的工资水平效应、经济增长效应以及人力资本效应。研究结果表明:最低工资与社会工资水平高度正相关,存在长期稳定均衡关系且互为格兰杰因果关系,同时无论长短期内最低工资对社会工资水平均呈现为正向促进作用且影响效应相对较强;最低工资与经济增长总体呈现高度正相关,二者存在长期稳定均衡关系且最低工资是经济增长的格兰杰原因,同时短期内最低工资对经济增长呈现为正向促进作用,但长期来看却表现出较强反向抑制作用;最低工资与人力资本较高度正相关,存在长期稳定均衡关系且最低工资是人力资本的格兰杰原因,同时短期内最低工资对人力资本表现出一定反向抑制作用,长期来看则主要呈现为正向促进作用。总的来说,上海市历年来最低工资制度已对社会工资水平、经济增长以及人力资本发展产生一定积极效应,但对经济增长和人力资本发展影响程度相对较小、统计显著性较弱乃至呈现一定抑制作用,表明其仍未能较好地发挥正向促进效应,最低工资制度及其相应配套措施仍有待进一步改善。

The implementation effect of the minimum wage is an important manifestation of the effectiveness of the minimum wage system.Taking the time series data of Shanghai from 1993 to 2016 as the research sample,the paper uses the econometric methods,such as cointegration test,Granger causality test and dynamic relationship analysis based on VAR model,to comprehensively explore the wage level effect,economic growth effect and human capital effect of minimum wage.As for wage level effect,the minimum wage is highly positively correlated with the social wage level,and there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship and a Granger causality between them;meanwhile,no matter in the long or short term,the minimum wage has a positive promoting effect on the social wage level and the effect is relatively strong.As for economic growth effect,the minimum wage is highly positively correlated with economic growth,the two have a long-term stable equilibrium relationship,and the minimum wage is the Granger cause of economic growth;the minimum wage plays a positive role in promoting economic growth in the short term,while it shows a strong reverse inhibition effect in the long run.As for human capital effect,the minimum wage is positively correlated with the human capital,there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between them,and the minimum wage is the Granger cause of human capital;at the same time,the minimum wage shows a certain reverse inhibition effect on human capital in the short term,while it is mainly presented as a positive promotion in the long run.Generally speaking,the minimum wage system in Shanghai has had a positive effect on the social wage level,economic growth and human capital development over the years,its degree of influence on economic growth and human capital development is relatively small,the statistical significance is weak and even has a certain restraining effect,which shows that it still fails to exert its positive promotion effect,and the minimum wage system and its corresponding supporting measures still need to be further improved.