广东省新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情流行趋势的初步预测

Preliminary prediction of the epidemic trend of Corona Virus Disease 2019 in Guangdong province

目的:通过计算和预测广东省新型冠状病毒肺炎的基本再生数,研究广东省疫情的流行趋势为其防控和相关政策支持提供依据.方法:依据广东省卫健委截至2020年2月8日的官方数据,构建传染病动力学SIR模型,计算现阶段新型冠状病毒肺炎基本再生数,并结合指数平滑法对未来基本再生数的变化加以预测.结果:疫情初期,广东省新冠肺炎基本再生数为2.48,并呈现波动下降的趋势.疫情将在2月下旬迎来拐点,3月下旬疫情将走向消亡.结论:新型冠状病毒肺炎在广东省的传播致病能力逐渐降低,目前阶段疫情正在逐步得到控制,采用及时有效的防控措施能够加快疫情的扑灭.

Objective:To study the epidemic trend of Corona Virus Disease 2019(COVID-19)in Guangdong province by calculating and predicting the basic reproduction number,and to provide evidence for its prevention and control and related policy support.Methods:According to the official data of Health Commission of Guangdong Province up to February 8th,2020,SIR model of infectious disease dynamics was established to calculate the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 at current stage,and to predict the change of basic reproduction number in the future by using exponential smoothing method.Results:At the beginning of the epidemic,the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 in Guangdong province was 2.48 and showed a trend of fluctuation and decrease.The epidemic will reach an inflection point in late February,and be end in late March.Conclusion:The transmission capacity of COVID-19 has gradually reduced in Guangdong province.At present,the epidemic situation has been gradually under control,and effective and in-time prevention and control measures will accelerate the end of the epidemic.