不确定条件下机场旅客出行方式与出发时刻的联合选择

Joint Selectionof Airport Passenger Travel Mode and Departure Time Under Uncertain Conditions

为精确研究机场旅客出行选择行为,基于不确定条件下前景理论,构建了出行方式与出发时刻联合选择模型.在模型构建过程中,根据不同类型的机场旅客设置不同的参考点及风险偏好系数,反映了参考点的异质性和参考点与机场旅客风险偏好之间的关系;建立了出行方式-出发时刻联合选择模型树状结构,简化了选择过程,提高了联合选择模型的效率.最后将该模型用于实例分析.结果显示,收入水平和出行目的对不同类型的机场旅客出行选择行为影响较为显著.

In order to accurately study the travel choice behavior of airport passengers,based on theprospect theory under uncertain conditions,a joint selection model of travel mode and departure time was established.In the process of model building,different reference points and risk preference coefficients were set according to different types of airport passengers,reflecting the heterogeneity of reference points and the relationship between reference points and risk preference of airport passengers.The tree structure of the travel mode-departure time joint selection model was established,which simplifies the selection process and improves the efficiency of the joint selection model.Finally,the model was applied to an example analysis.The results show that the income level and travel purpose have a significant impact on the travel choice behavior of different types of airport passengers.