基于可靠性方法的山区公路行车安全研究

Research on Driving Safety in Mountainous Areas Based on Reliability Method

本文基于可靠性理论,考虑行车速度、路面摩擦系数和反应时间三个随机变量,针对车辆侧滑和视距不足两类事故致因分别构建了功能函数,通过FORM算法求解出干燥和潮湿路面下的车辆侧滑失效概率,并量化分析了控制车速对于降低侧滑概率的作用.为校准视距不足的失效概率,结合布伦特算法给出了各平曲线路段的有效视距建议值.结果表明,平曲线路段半径越小,车辆侧滑概率越高,且阴雨天气路面湿滑时的侧滑概率远高于干燥路面;控制车速是避免车辆侧滑的有效途径,行车速度均值降低4 km/h足够将各个半径条件下的侧滑概率降至1%以下.在同样的失效概率下,潮湿路面所需的最小有效视距远大于干燥路面,且其差值随着半径的增大而增加.

Based on the reliability theory,considering three random variables of driving speed,road friction coefficient and reaction time,this paper constructed functional functions respectively for two types of accident causes of vehicle sideslip and sight distance insufficiency.The vehicle sideslip failure probability under dry and wet road surface was solved by FORM algorithm,and the effect of controlling vehicle speed on reducing sideslip probability was quantitatively analyzed.In order to calibrate the failure probability of insufficient sight distance,combined with Brent algorithm,the effective sight distance recommended values for each flat curve section were given.The results show that the smaller the radius of the flat curve section,the higher the probability of vehicle sideslip,and the probability of sideslip on wet and wet roads is much higher than that on dry roads.Controlling vehicle speed is an effective way to avoid vehicle sideslip,and a reduction of 4km/h in the average driving speed is enough to reduce the sideslip probability under various radius conditions to less than 1%.Under the same failure probability,the minimum effective sight distance required for wet pavement is much larger than that for dry pavement,and the difference increases with the increase of radius.