基于高斯混合模型的船舶到达规律研究

Research on Vessel Arrival Rules Based on Gaussian Mixture Model

为了提高港口航道船舶到达规律模型的准确性,分析总结了传统到达规律模型的局限性,在传统模型的基础上,综合考虑不同船舶类型、不同时间尺度、不同航行区域等影响因素,提出利用混合分布的方式来表征船舶到达规律的思想,构建基于高斯混合模型的船舶到达规律参数的计算模型.高斯混合模型能提高在不同船舶类型和时间尺度下的船舶到达规律曲线的拟合优度.以宁波-舟山港的虾峙门航道为例,应用高斯混合模型对该航道2015年的船舶到达规律参数进行了计算,数值实验结果验证了高斯混合模型的有效性和优越性.

In order to improve the accuracy of the vessel arrival rules modelin port and waterway,the limitations of the traditional arrival rules model were analyzed and summarized.Based on the traditional model,considering the influence factors of different ship types,different time scales and different navigation areas,the idea of using mixed distribution to characterize the ship arrival law was proposed,and the calculation model of ship arrival law parameters based on Gaussian mixture model was constructed.Gaussian mixture model can improve the goodness of fit of ship arrival curve under different ship types and time scales.Taking the Xiashimen waterway of Ningbo-Zhoushan Port as an example,the Gaussian mixture model was applied to calculate the ship arrival law parameters of the waterway in 2015.The numerical experiment results verify the effectiveness and superiority of the Gaussian mixture model.